Product direction · ToGradeOrNot

We show you the odds, the math, and the evidence. You decide what ships.

Preview the current grading-EV research desk while manual Copy Check, submission tracking and Class B evidence-reviewed outcome calibration are being built.

Enrollment coming soonHow the math works

Five-card sample

See the sample page

A sample from the run of 2026-08-04 — shown without ranks or live values.

Bands are rounded, delayed estimates — a taste of the method, not the live edge.

How it works

  1. Screen

    A ranked research shortlist from the latest published run, ordered by lower-bound EV.

  2. Check

    Lookup is available for supported catalog cards. Manual Copy Check is in development.

  3. Decide

    Every estimate opens into an itemized ledger with the downside shown at equal weight.

  4. Track

    In development: build submission batches and pre-register each prediction before the grades come back.

  5. Learn

    In development: accepted returns will join their frozen predictions in an aggregate calibration log.

Built to be checked

Read the methodology for the exact EV formula and data sources, and the calibration log for the outcome standard being built. Once the Track and review flow ships, it will show how accepted Class B evidence-reviewed outcomes compare with their preregistered predictions. When we can’t defend a number, we refuse to show one.